Bill Simmons' NFL Wildcard Picks

"One of the prevailing themes of 2005 was that Tom Cruise turned into an insane person. I made that joke. You made that joke. Everyone made that joke. But when you watch 'Cocktail' again -- a movie that was released in 1988, by the way -- it becomes abundantly clear that Cruise was bonkers way back then. Just watch the 'Addicted For Love'/bottle-flipping scene again, it's absolutely no different than his doing somersaults on Oprah's sofa. In fact, his performance on 'Oprah' was lifted right out of this movie. They're the same guy.

Here's the point: Cruise didn't change ... we changed. He's always been crazy. He tried to tell us in 'Cocktail,' we just never realized it. Now we know. And the same goes for Round 1 of the playoffs. It's always been screwed up, it's always been tough to pick four winners, but the biggest difference in 2006 is that there aren't any crappy coaches or crummy QBs to make it easier. There's no Anthony Wright at home, no Jake Plummer on the road, no Mike Sherman, no Mike Martz. Hence, there are no layups. We just have to work a little harder at figuring this out, that's all. Just know that Round 1 has ALWAYS been crazy. Just like Tom Cruise."